Heat vs Celtics Game 3: NBA Play-Off Prediction and Odds

Heat vs Celtics: After a long series with Milwaukee, Boston got the road win they needed in Game 2. After a letdown in Game 1 and as mentioned in our NBA betting picks and predictions, back them. It is to keep that momentum going when they return to TD Garden. Besides a decisive Game 2 performance, Boston evened the Eastern Conference Finals. And earning home-court advantage in the process. In almost every sense, this puts Miami behind the eight-ball. But it might also be where Jimmy Butler and company thrive.

Heat vs Celtics Game 3 odds

The Celtics entered as 5.5-point favorites late Thursday night after winning Game 2. Within minutes, it had dropped to -6, and by Friday morning, it had fallen to -6.5. The total first moved in the opposite direction, opening at 208 or 208.5. Also, after spending on the book, then dropping to 207.5 by Friday noon. Use the live odds widget above to keep track of any future line changes until the game begins. Furthermore, before betting, check out the entire NBA odds to ensure you receive the best number.

Game 3 predictions

  • Prediction: Celtics -6.5 (-105)
  • Prediction: Under 207.5 (-108)
  • Best bet: Celtics 1H -3 (-110)

Information for Game 3

  • TD Garden, Boston, MA
  • Saturday, May 21, 2022
  • 8:30 p.m. ET
  • ABC TV

Heat vs Celtics series odds

Heat: +210
Celtics: -270

Key injuries

Heat: P.J. Tucker SF, Kyle Lowry PG
Celtics: Derrick White PG, Nik Stauskas SG

Betting trend

The Under is 5-1 in Miami’s previous six games. Then, with the exception of Game 2, it allowed at least 100 points in the following game after conceding at least 100 points in the previous game. They gave up 107 points to Boston in Game 1.

Picks and predictions

Spread analysis

It’s something Boston would never admit. That would go against all competition ideals, yet the Celtics had to prepare to lose Game 1. On some level, missing two starters for a Conference Finals game must be acknowledged as a disadvantage. Boston went to an eight-man rotation in place of Marcus Smart and Al Horford. Aaron Nesmith gets 11 minutes of action, while Daniel Theis gets 20 more. In Game 1, Jayson Tatum played 44 minutes and Jaylen Brown 43 minutes. It’s not surprising that they wore down in the second half.

In Game 2, Boston maintained a tight rotation. But Nesmith and Theis together played only 13 minutes. The Celtics played seven meaningful minutes but still kept Tatum to 32 minutes. Also, Brown to 33 would have been an eight-man rotation if Derrick White had been available. Of those seven, no one played fewer than 20 minutes, despite it being a blowout. In other words, Boston did not adjust their strategy in Game 1. However, the quality of its players had declined. The Celtics returned to play in Game 2.

Heat vs Celtics Game 3: NBA Play-Off Prediction and Odds

Heat vs Celtics

However, strong shooting helped the team to a 25-point victory. Boston would have won even if the variance has removed. The Celtics have shot 38.8% from the three-point range in the playoffs, compared to 50% on Thursday. It was a five-make boost from beyond the line. If you take them out, Boston still wins by ten points. It would also have pushed the Celtics to their postseason average of 45.9% from the field. And down from 51.2 percent in Game 2.

Moreover, Boston evened the series thanks to more than just hot shooting. Simply put, it is the superior team. It wasn’t even that Miami had a terrible shooting performance. And it is shooting 44.2 percent from the field and 29.4 percent from a distance, which is not far from the postseason averages of 46.4 and 32 percent.

On the other hand, there’s no reason to believe the Heat will ever outperform those averages. Only twice this playoffs has Miami made more than 40% of its threes. And one of them was playing the Hawks in the first round of the playoffs. Only three of the Heat’s 13 games saw them shoot better than 50% from the field, with the playoff opener being one of them.

Prediction: Celtics -6.5

Over/Under analysis

Apart from Boston’s strong shooting in Game 2, both defenses are superior to their respective offenses. While both Games 1 and 2 exceeded this amount and their predicted totals. The lopsided character of their second halves had a significant role. These defenses should set the pace in a close game. The series total will start rising too high, from 203.5 before Game 1 to 206 before Game 2 to 207.5 before Game 3. The day Under will be rewarded with moderate shooting, while Saturday should be the day.

Consider the Celtics’ blistering pace in Game 2 and the hypothetical of subtracting five made threes mentioned earlier. It was not a good initiative and aligned with Boston’s postseason averages. Also, the final score would have been 214 instead of 229. 

Prediction: Under 207.5

Read more at OKBET: Celtics vs Heat Game 2: NBA Play-Off Prediction and Odds

Image Credit: www.nba.com

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